Thursday, October 27, 2011

USD Uptrend Correction


 Following previous posts, I still maintain that the USD uptrend will resume sometime soon. Next wave should, most-likely, begin next week or so.

 I insist that the moves are somewhat easier to predict while timing is more difficult.

 Last week was a consolidation period for the USD against many currencies. Mainly the majors. Both the Euro and the Pound, broke a diamond formation to the upside. Needless to mention that a consolidation is known to be somewhat a market hesitation/indecision on what to do next. More than that, it shows that those who went in short begin to book profits making prices go up to a satisfactory level where a second wave of sellers are willing to jump in.It works exactly like a department store giving out discounts. There are those who only jump in when there is a clear trend. 

Therefore, the minimum targets for the Pound and the Euro respectively are: 1.6085 and 1.4091. Swissey will most likely be the greatest gainer against the USD and could probably reach 0.8445 due to a H&S formation observed on the daily chart. Gold could well reach 1770.00 @ short term.

 Thel USDx has a minimum correction target of 75.70. From this level on it becomes too risky to sell the buck IMHO.

As posted before, DJI has reached the minimum target of 11700 and it should keep going up for a short period of time before it makes another drop. Oil WTI has also surpassed the 90.55 minimum target and will keep going up for a while, but should also take another plunge soon.

The USD should keep going up with world economy risk being off thus generating the end of the carry trade bonanza. Next post I will talk a little bit about the Carry Trade itself.

I had made this post on Oct. 22 in my Facebook page (personal) but only for those who can read in portuguese. I apologize the delay in placing this post here.

All the best to all.

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