Tuesday, June 28, 2011

#USDCHF

The Franc has been a safe haven for those wishing to avoid risk in this period of uncertainty. However, It's of my belief,as stated many times earlier, that the risk aversion will be shifted to the USD very soon.

The charts below, indicate some reversal patterns.

The daily chart demonstrates price action inside a bullish wedge consolidation formation. It also portrays two clear MACD bull divergences (white dotted lines).

The 240 min. chart denotes a diamond formation (inside the wedge) in which price has been touched by a supportive trend line that extends from the low of the 5th of June and most-likely will be taken out thus breaking the formation south of the border. We can also observe a breakaway gap that was formed earlier today indicating that is some strong USD selling pressure. However, that gap will be covered sooner than later. Let me remind you that there is also a gap on the USDx. The bottom of that gap (USDx) will act as support. Likewise, the top of this act will act as resistance.

The 60 min. chart. shows a smaller wedge formation (violet) as well as a MACD bull divergence pointing towards an initial MINIMUM target of 0.8474.

The fundamental explanation to this is that risk is well diversified throughout the world with great turmoil in the US, in the EURO zone, the BRICS have recessions under way and China's (apart from the others in BRICS) picture is very uncertain as of now. Therefore, buying a major currency at this 'bargain' price makes all the sense in the world to me since all other currencies are overvalued considering the present economical picture.


  The daily chart showing the two wedge formations as well as the MACD bull divergences. Targets are denoted in the white dotted lines.



The 240 min chart demonstrating a supportive trend line that extended from the 5th of June being penetrated. Most likely, price will seek new highs pretty soon.


The 60 min chart showing the smaller wedge (violet) as well as the gap. This gaps bottom @ 0.8342 will serve as initial resistance.

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