Thursday, September 5, 2013

EURUSD Longer Term Short Position

This is a very nice,longer term position that I took on August 27th. Just like its counterpart, USDCHF.

A classic tight range where the over and under pattern was once again present.

A 4H high was established @1.3400, on August 8, providing a nice resistance level. The level was once again tested on the 20th leaving a strong supply area rightabove it. Than, again, on the 27th, the level was visited once more. This time a Short position was established @ the 1.3997 area with stops above 1.3452.

This is was a text book over and under pattern trade with decent stops.

The pair was facing some exhaustion to the upside as suggested by the 4H MACD bear divergence pointing towards the 1.2990 level.

Therefore a bearish correction was due thus making this trade a no brainer.

Position currently secured by trailing stops with good floating profit.

Levels for the trade:

SL: 1.3455
Short @: 1.3997
TP @: 1.2995


USDCHF Long Position

This is a very nice,longer term position that I took on August 27th.

A classic tight range where the over and under pattern was once again present.

A 4H low established @ 0.9175, on August 8, provided a nice support level. The level was once again tested on the 20th leaving a strong demand area right below it. Than, again, on the 27th, the level was visited once more. This time a long position was established @ the 0.9177 area with stops below 0.9145.

This is was a text book over and under pattern trade with really tight stops.

The pair was facing some exhaustion to the downside as suggested by the 4H MACD bull divergence pointing towards the 0.9533 level.

Therefore a bullish correction was due thus making this trade a no brainer.

Position currently secured by trailing stops with good floating profit.

Levels for the trade:

SL: 0.9143
Long @: 0.9177
TP @:0.9533


Over & Under Pattern. Target already within reach.

USDJPY Diamond - Long and Short Term Setups

The Dollar Yen pair has presented a breakout of contracting range that began on April, 2013. This range presented itself as a clear cut diamond formation on the daily time frame.

A position LONG should have been established  around the 95.80 level. Some 30-40 pips SL would be a safe bet projecting the break towards the upside as the main diagonalof the formation is pointing down and therefore a break up was indeed to be expected.

The projected target to the upside is 108.85.

Levels for this trade that took place on August 8th 2013:

SL: 95.45
Buy: 95.85
TP: 108.85

Trailing stops already triggered.

If one was unable to catch the bottom of the formation, there was a chance to assume a LONG position last Tuesday (09.03.2013) and leave the position open 'betting' on USD strength due to the range breakout. Very conservative stops on this one.

Levels for this trade:

SL: 99.13
Entry: 99.32
TP 1: 100.00
TP 2: 108.85

Trade @ BE currently and partial close triggered @ 100.00.



Daily Chart Showing a Diamond Formation


A side note on this is that retail NET SHORT positions on USDJPY and crosses (YEN LONG) have surged by almost 150% since last week. Therefore, my contratrian view supports YEN weakness against all majors.

On another side note, there's always a possibility that the formation fails to deliver. However, a failed pattern is as good as the original plan because it clearly states that the market has chosen the opposite direction.  A MACD bear divergence on the daily time frame points towards the 90.90. So the pair is clearly showing early signs of exhaustion and a major turnaround shall not be disregarded as probable.