Depending where/when the neckline breaks, we could see price surge to 79.00 in a few months time or even less.
For now, just seat back relax but keep an eye open for the USD bulls coming back strong as to push the buck to new higher highs.
Statistic and Probabilistic Trading
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
#USDx Daily Chart
USDx is bearish right now. However, I have sufficient elements to believe that the bears will push their breaks soon. Bulls could take the wheels already during this week. If not, early next week.
Depending where/when the neckline breaks, we could see price surge to 79.00 in a few months time or even less.
For now, just seat back relax but keep an eye open for the USD bulls coming back strong as to push the buck to new higher highs.
Depending where/when the neckline breaks, we could see price surge to 79.00 in a few months time or even less.
For now, just seat back relax but keep an eye open for the USD bulls coming back strong as to push the buck to new higher highs.
#USDJPY ($USDJPY)
I might not have missed this entry after all.
Looking awesome as of now.
Check it out.
Looking awesome as of now.
Check it out.
#GBPUSD and Precision (#diamond/#H&S)
I was once told by, who I personally consider one of the most amazing traders around, that the market is very precise. While I was beginning my journey, I had reason to doubt that. However, things like cables H&S formation observed on the daily and 240 min charts gives me sufficient reason to think other wise.
The market is indeed precise.
Observe how I was able to project the top of this right shoulder/diamond seen on cables daily charts.
Precise entry with a very tight stop loss.
Thank you very much Mr. Igor Toshchakov (L.A. Igrok) for your teachings and insights.
;-)
The market is indeed precise.
Observe how I was able to project the top of this right shoulder/diamond seen on cables daily charts.
Precise entry with a very tight stop loss.
Thank you very much Mr. Igor Toshchakov (L.A. Igrok) for your teachings and insights.
;-)
Sunday, May 29, 2011
$USDJPY and $GBPUSD
Being too busy with something else makes us pay for not paying enough attention to the charts. This is what happened to last weeks end. Have a look at this beauty on the daily charts for USDJPY.
A continuation pattern.
Being meticulous can also deliver. Check out this other one on cable. Still a projection. However will be within trading range pretty soon. This one will most likely be a correction one.
Hope you enjoy these very rare "precious".
A continuation pattern.
Being meticulous can also deliver. Check out this other one on cable. Still a projection. However will be within trading range pretty soon. This one will most likely be a correction one.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
US Dollar Index ($USD) and OIL Thru Charts
I apologize for the delay in making a post regarding the 'connection' between the buck and Oil. I am involved in another project that is taking much of my time.
People get very skeptical when s, making predictions about the many different assets. Well, I tend not to make predictions but rather will stick to what I see on my charts. Most of the time they tell me a VERY true story for a lo of things that are about to happen.
It might seem a little cartesian for most of you. But graphs and some imagination can help one a lot.
By looking at the Oil and the USDx charts I have good reason to believe that the buck will regain strength and it won't take very long. I dare to say that we might see it in a very different picture by the end of 2012 and early 2013.
Like mentioned in an earlier post, the buck and Oil are very negatively correlated.
When you put those two together, you have some of the pieces to put a puzzle together.
Well, lets look at the charts:
OIL
Oil monthly and weekly: It is early to say, but a very special formation could be in the works for these two time frames. A couple more months will give me some more indication that this is a potential formation I am 'projecting'. For now, all I can say is that I expect oil prices to drop for the following months until late 2012, early 2013.
Daily: A rather steep trend line with a MACD divergence pointing towards 80.30. Price is still heading up, but by the steepness of this line with the added divergence I see it dropping sooner than later.
H4: Price action inside a wedge-like pattern. Most likely, will be a continuation pattern. Therefore expect the lower line to be taken out.
Therefore, in the mid-term prices have a limited potential to rise a bit more. However, they are entering exhaustion mode.
USDx
Monthly and Weekly charts: Price inside a possible wedge or a triangle pattern. Which ever pattern it is of the two, the outcome looks like to be the same. MACD bullish divergence on both time frames pointing towards 92.63 and 109.77 respectively.
Daily: Very interesting picture. Price action inside a long time descending channel. MACD bullish divergence pointing towards the 78.85 level. An iverted H&S formation could be in the makings with the right shoulder awiting for completion. I would expect the right shoulder to be formed around the 73.93 level which is the ultimate target south for lower time frames MACD bearish divergencies. Interestingly enough, the MACD bullish divergence (78.85) is precisely at the 61.8 fib level. Coincidence? Lets wait and see.
H4 & H1: Price broke a very steep ascending trend line this week. It started heading south supported by MACD bearish divergencies targeting 75.30 (already taken out), 74.40 and ultimately 73.93. The 73.93 is also confirmed on the M30 time frame.
Putting these two together, bearing in mind that both are negatively correlated, one can have a descent story of what is about to happen.
Lets see if this rather 'cartesian' instrument can show us something.
The white dotted lines represent the MACD divergence targets for each unstrument.
People get very skeptical when s, making predictions about the many different assets. Well, I tend not to make predictions but rather will stick to what I see on my charts. Most of the time they tell me a VERY true story for a lo of things that are about to happen.
It might seem a little cartesian for most of you. But graphs and some imagination can help one a lot.
By looking at the Oil and the USDx charts I have good reason to believe that the buck will regain strength and it won't take very long. I dare to say that we might see it in a very different picture by the end of 2012 and early 2013.
Like mentioned in an earlier post, the buck and Oil are very negatively correlated.
When you put those two together, you have some of the pieces to put a puzzle together.
Well, lets look at the charts:
OIL
Oil monthly and weekly: It is early to say, but a very special formation could be in the works for these two time frames. A couple more months will give me some more indication that this is a potential formation I am 'projecting'. For now, all I can say is that I expect oil prices to drop for the following months until late 2012, early 2013.
Daily: A rather steep trend line with a MACD divergence pointing towards 80.30. Price is still heading up, but by the steepness of this line with the added divergence I see it dropping sooner than later.
H4: Price action inside a wedge-like pattern. Most likely, will be a continuation pattern. Therefore expect the lower line to be taken out.
Therefore, in the mid-term prices have a limited potential to rise a bit more. However, they are entering exhaustion mode.
USDx
Monthly and Weekly charts: Price inside a possible wedge or a triangle pattern. Which ever pattern it is of the two, the outcome looks like to be the same. MACD bullish divergence on both time frames pointing towards 92.63 and 109.77 respectively.
Daily: Very interesting picture. Price action inside a long time descending channel. MACD bullish divergence pointing towards the 78.85 level. An iverted H&S formation could be in the makings with the right shoulder awiting for completion. I would expect the right shoulder to be formed around the 73.93 level which is the ultimate target south for lower time frames MACD bearish divergencies. Interestingly enough, the MACD bullish divergence (78.85) is precisely at the 61.8 fib level. Coincidence? Lets wait and see.
H4 & H1: Price broke a very steep ascending trend line this week. It started heading south supported by MACD bearish divergencies targeting 75.30 (already taken out), 74.40 and ultimately 73.93. The 73.93 is also confirmed on the M30 time frame.
Putting these two together, bearing in mind that both are negatively correlated, one can have a descent story of what is about to happen.
Lets see if this rather 'cartesian' instrument can show us something.
The white dotted lines represent the MACD divergence targets for each unstrument.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
US Dollar Index ($USD) and OIL
People don't actually realize how commodities influence markets in a very strict way.
In this sense, I like to address Oil as the 'father' of all commodities. Taking into account that every son/daughter needs a mother, than I usually address the USDx as the 'mother'(or wife for that sense) currency.
By simply watching both of these, you can get a pretty good sense of how other markets could/should behave in a given time frame.
Last night, it was no different. Just by doing some cross-analysis between the USDx and Oil I was able to kind of predict the following sessions moves (Asia-Europe-US). Not that this was enough to open a trade, but it gave me a very good hint of where and when to trade.
USDx had very short term unpaid divergence pointing upwards by the beginning of Sydney which was filled during Asia, from that point on several different unfilled bearish divergencies were pointing towards a move south.
On the other hand, we had oil inside a consolidation M30 (triangle) that had already 4 sequential touches across.
Having these in mind, I knew that the consolidation break north was imminent and that USDx would seek lower levels most probably late into European session.
Next day I wake up and see that everything went almos exactly as expected. However, the imminent break (in oil) had not happened yet. Well, it did happen during late Europe and early NY...
So all the USD pairs indeed became bearish.
Making a long story short, look out for other indications that can help you to be on the right side of the market.
Don't need to be any Nostradamus. Might as well use common sense.
Next posts I will try to show the Oil trade and elaborate the USDx - Oil connection thru charts.
Happy trading to all.
By the way , I called these before I went to bed on my twitter ;-):
http://twitter.com/#!/MCapitalMarkets
In this sense, I like to address Oil as the 'father' of all commodities. Taking into account that every son/daughter needs a mother, than I usually address the USDx as the 'mother'(or wife for that sense) currency.
By simply watching both of these, you can get a pretty good sense of how other markets could/should behave in a given time frame.
Last night, it was no different. Just by doing some cross-analysis between the USDx and Oil I was able to kind of predict the following sessions moves (Asia-Europe-US). Not that this was enough to open a trade, but it gave me a very good hint of where and when to trade.
USDx had very short term unpaid divergence pointing upwards by the beginning of Sydney which was filled during Asia, from that point on several different unfilled bearish divergencies were pointing towards a move south.
On the other hand, we had oil inside a consolidation M30 (triangle) that had already 4 sequential touches across.
Having these in mind, I knew that the consolidation break north was imminent and that USDx would seek lower levels most probably late into European session.
Next day I wake up and see that everything went almos exactly as expected. However, the imminent break (in oil) had not happened yet. Well, it did happen during late Europe and early NY...
So all the USD pairs indeed became bearish.
Making a long story short, look out for other indications that can help you to be on the right side of the market.
Don't need to be any Nostradamus. Might as well use common sense.
Next posts I will try to show the Oil trade and elaborate the USDx - Oil connection thru charts.
Happy trading to all.
By the way , I called these before I went to bed on my twitter ;-):
http://twitter.com/#!/MCapitalMarkets
Oil
Oil buy zone @ 100.00 most probably will be reached today. In reality, will resume the long time uptrend. Target for this buy is @ 104.60.
Later on I will discuss Oil, USDx and foreign exchange pairs that are 'affected' by oil.
Later on I will discuss Oil, USDx and foreign exchange pairs that are 'affected' by oil.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Excessive Ranges and Divergence
Yesterday many of the currency pairs presented above average (not to say extraordinary in some cases) intraday ranges when compared to their usual intraday ranges.
Some of these examples were EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY and AUDUSD.
All of these pairs also had a unique condition of presenting confirmed MACD divergencies on intraday time frames.
Although I am very fond of trend dollowing trades, sometimes these opportunities show up. However, a lot of experience is needed to take such trades.
Some examples below.
Cheers.
PS: By the way: NZDUSD had an excessive range as well as divergence targeting 0.7940.
PS2: USDCHF also has an excessive range for today along with a bull divergence targeting 0.8830.
Some of these examples were EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY and AUDUSD.
All of these pairs also had a unique condition of presenting confirmed MACD divergencies on intraday time frames.
Although I am very fond of trend dollowing trades, sometimes these opportunities show up. However, a lot of experience is needed to take such trades.
Some examples below.
Cheers.
PS: By the way: NZDUSD had an excessive range as well as divergence targeting 0.7940.
PS2: USDCHF also has an excessive range for today along with a bull divergence targeting 0.8830.
Counter Trend Trades and Divergence
Many pairs had excessive intraday ranges if compared to their usual daily range. When those situations occur, it's an excellent oppotunity to open counter trend trades. I will be posting some charts later on today.
Monday, May 23, 2011
The power of divergence
Sometimes not being thorough enough while planning trades, can lead you to jump into trades without the proper tools to evaluate their probability of success. One of thesecomponents (tools) is called the divergence. There were clear divergencies previous to both trades that considerably reduced the odds of success.
Regarding the May 19 trades (USDCAD/AUDUSD), here are the pictures that illustrate these divergencies as observed in MACD. I consider short term MACD divergence (M1- M30) to be very significant when evaluating trades.
I also have the habit of going back to my trades and see why they went wrong.
Regarding the May 19 trades (USDCAD/AUDUSD), here are the pictures that illustrate these divergencies as observed in MACD. I consider short term MACD divergence (M1- M30) to be very significant when evaluating trades.
I also have the habit of going back to my trades and see why they went wrong.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Todays Trading Day
3 pairs were within trading region today according to my rules: USDCAD, AUDUSD and GBPJPY.
AUDUSD - Price made a new high for the week today and still had about 35% of its average weekly range to go. This weeks trend is up as well was the daily trend after US news. Therefore a high probability LONG trade went into effect. Against all probabilities, price went against my trade and hit my very tight SL.
USDCAD - Very similar setup as AUDUSD. However, this time a SHORT entry. No luck once again.
GBPJPY - As mentioned yesterday, a very nice geometric picture we like to call diamond present itself on the H4/H1 time frames. Although these last two months have been in downtrends, it seems that we might enter into a correction period. A MACD divergence makes me think about that as well as the geometrical formation. Today, following the days trend (up) and the weeks trend (also up), I made a LONG entry with a very tight Stop Loss. I will let this one run NORTH. So far so good.
Cheers.
AUDUSD - Price made a new high for the week today and still had about 35% of its average weekly range to go. This weeks trend is up as well was the daily trend after US news. Therefore a high probability LONG trade went into effect. Against all probabilities, price went against my trade and hit my very tight SL.
USDCAD - Very similar setup as AUDUSD. However, this time a SHORT entry. No luck once again.
GBPJPY - As mentioned yesterday, a very nice geometric picture we like to call diamond present itself on the H4/H1 time frames. Although these last two months have been in downtrends, it seems that we might enter into a correction period. A MACD divergence makes me think about that as well as the geometrical formation. Today, following the days trend (up) and the weeks trend (also up), I made a LONG entry with a very tight Stop Loss. I will let this one run NORTH. So far so good.
Cheers.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
$GBPJPY - How geometry plays into effect in Technical Analysis
This pair has an interesting picture: a diamond as observed in H1/H4 . Most probably a reversal one. Also an unpaid MACD bullish divergence pointing towards 134.25.
Howerver theres still room for the weekly range to expand, price is still drifting around 50% of the present week range. Lets wait and see if we have entries for tommorow or Friday.
Howerver theres still room for the weekly range to expand, price is still drifting around 50% of the present week range. Lets wait and see if we have entries for tommorow or Friday.
USDx
At current price levels USDx has aprox. 68% better chances of extending its weekly range south and 'just' 32% of extending it north.
Todays Market
EURUSD and USDCHF changed their main moves of the day invalidating some intraday setups for now. With less than 1 hour for NY open, we could still see expansion for the weekly ranges.
Cable made the fastest/greatest move of the day thus surpassing its average daily range before NY open. Look out for short positions with daily, weekly and monthly trends aligned for the remainder of this week.
As mentioned earlier today, the USD index is still trending upwards before NY open. Lets see what happens.
USDx Dollar Index
Here goes my view on the buck:
Long term: It seems that price is into a wedge consolidation formation. A divergence on the monthly chart points to a reversal that could be met as soon as the second semester of 2012 (although predicting time is VERY hard). The minimum target for this reversal is @ 92.63.
Mid term: A supportive trendline could be broken today. This would lead to falls as indicated by divergences observed on the H4 and the H1 time frames. H4 initial target points to the 74.40 level (H4) and than to the 73.93 (H1) level.
Short term: Proximity to the top of the range, with about 4% of the AMR (average monthly range) left to go, with less than half of the month gone, suggests that price had a greater probability of expanding north. However, price was close and indeed took out the previous low of the week, thus suggesting further extension south probably for the remainder of this week (24% of the average weekly rangestill to go). Most probably the mid-term target will be reached sooner than later before prices return to its appreciation mode.
Long term: It seems that price is into a wedge consolidation formation. A divergence on the monthly chart points to a reversal that could be met as soon as the second semester of 2012 (although predicting time is VERY hard). The minimum target for this reversal is @ 92.63.
Mid term: A supportive trendline could be broken today. This would lead to falls as indicated by divergences observed on the H4 and the H1 time frames. H4 initial target points to the 74.40 level (H4) and than to the 73.93 (H1) level.
Short term: Proximity to the top of the range, with about 4% of the AMR (average monthly range) left to go, with less than half of the month gone, suggests that price had a greater probability of expanding north. However, price was close and indeed took out the previous low of the week, thus suggesting further extension south probably for the remainder of this week (24% of the average weekly rangestill to go). Most probably the mid-term target will be reached sooner than later before prices return to its appreciation mode.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Todays Market Statistic and Probabilistic Trade Analysis
In regard to the earlier post, I am attaching two images here that illustrate a part of my trading system as well as some common sense thinking. Both of them could have provided good entries. However they would have different outcomes and obviously one was to 'bet' more equity than in the other. Could anyone tell which could be worked with a greater leverage?
I'll give you some hints: Both of them still have 'room' to expand their ranges when compared to their average weekly ranges. Both of them had aligned their weekly and today's trend. Both of them had very good, not to say great R:R potential. However, one had a higher probability of fulfilling further expansion...
Let me add that in the search to make the perfect trade, I missed one entry by 2 pips and the other by 11-12 pips.
I'll give you some hints: Both of them still have 'room' to expand their ranges when compared to their average weekly ranges. Both of them had aligned their weekly and today's trend. Both of them had very good, not to say great R:R potential. However, one had a higher probability of fulfilling further expansion...
Let me add that in the search to make the perfect trade, I missed one entry by 2 pips and the other by 11-12 pips.
Todays Market
Most pairs are drifting around the 50% Average Weekly Range line. Even in those cases that we have strong quantified trends in one direction, making a probabilistic decision as to enter a trade is a tough job. Therefore, as of now, very few pairs have/had clear indication if they have/had better chances of expanding north or south. There are a few exceptions though. EURNZD being one of these exceptions where price is clearly wandering close to the high of the week. Lets see if trend and probability confirm my thoughts.
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